Press Release – Star Tribune SOS Poll

Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 9/19/22
MEDIA CONTACT: Shannon Bruce, Campaign Chair, [email protected]
RE: Secretary of State Election Poll by Star Tribune

(Minneapolis, MN) – The Star Tribune, a left-wing newspaper and active promoter of the Democratic party and its candidates, conducted a poll of 800 likely voters this month.

Polls have become less reliable in recent years, so one must read them in context and adjust for polling bias. The poll under-sampled Republicans (32%) and over-sampled Democrats (35%). The margin of error was +/-3.5%.

The most concerning aspect of the poll is that 42% of voters are not highly confident the mid-term election would be counted accurately. Only 56 % of voters reported “high” confidence in the results. This is stunning.

42% of voters said they had either “moderate” confidence (27%); “not much” confidence (13%); and 2% were “not sure.” This is hardly a ringing endorsement of Steve Simon’s administration of our elections.

Kim Crockett observed, “If that many people lacked confidence in the security of our banking system, there would be a run on the banks! Given that citizens only have one vote, shouldn’t we have a rock-solid confidence level in our Secretary of State? Simon emphasizes voter convenience and turnout over the security of each voter’s ballot. That means he doesn’t care about your individual ballot and that lack of confidence is reflected in this poll.”

The Strib tried hard to spin these inconvenient results by adding the 56% of “high” confidence voters to the 27% of “moderately” confident voters so it could claim that 83% of voters were confident about the election this fall. Then it only quoted voters who confirmed their preferred narrative. This is dishonest reporting.

As for the race itself, the poll reported Simon ahead by 8 points (48% Simon to 40% Crockett) with 12% of voters undecided. If adjusted for the margin of error, Simon could be polling at just 44.5% and Crockett at 43.5%.

Given the sampling bias, we could further reduce Simon’s lead, again putting Crockett well within reach of defeating Simon.

These bias-adjusted results are closer to the recent KSTP poll (Simon 42% and Crockett 38%) released earlier this month which showed Crockett within the +/- 4.9% margin of error of defeating Simon, with 20% undecided. (We note that “undecided” voters often break for a challenger against the incumbent, which favors Crockett.)

Kim concluded, “I have a lot of work to do but I am pretty pleased given Simon’s massive war chest and eight-year incumbency. Many voters, especially parents with children at home, are just getting children settled into school and fall routines. I look forward to talking with them about what the office does and why it is so important to ending the chaos in our schools and streets. People are tired of the nasty fighting over elections. It is tearing families apart and creeping into the workplace. Better election laws will calm things down so we can quickly solve other big issues.”

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